Shifts in Israel's ultra-Orthodox political landscape

A notable departure from long-standing political norms occurred following recent Israeli elections when United Torah Judaism, the primary ultra-Orthodox party, chose not to recommend Benjamin Netanyahu for the role of prime minister. This decision breaks from years of close alignment between the Haredi bloc and Netanyahu, suggesting a tactical effort to strengthen the party's negotiating position while reflecting deeper internal shifts.

The vote highlighted several significant changes within Haredi society, including a decline in the authority of veteran leaders and the rise of new forces challenging established conventions. Central to these changes is a growing crisis surrounding the societal model that prioritizes full-time Torah study over labor market participation and military service for many men.

For decades, Haredi parties maintained stable political influence through communal loyalty and rabbinical direction. However, that predictability is eroding. The broader constituency is increasingly demanding accountability and a response to Israel's changing realities, a sentiment amplified by the trauma of the October 7 attack and the subsequent regional conflicts.

New fault lines are emerging within the community, dividing younger and older generations, as well as working Haredim and full-time scholars. These divisions are becoming tangible due to economic hardships, tensions with the military, and the political struggle over conscription laws. The failure to pass legislation exempting yeshiva students from service exposed the limits of current leadership's power and the cost of broken promises.

The emergence of a new party, HaTzibur HaHaredi, marks a significant shift despite its limited electoral success. Backed by influential rabbis, the party challenges the monopoly of established groups like United Torah Judaism and Shas. It appeals to Haredim who feel isolated and dissatisfied with a leadership they view as focused on preserving power rather than addressing community needs.

Leadership changes at United Torah Judaism further illustrate this transition. Moshe Gafni, a Knesset member since 1988, was removed from his leadership position alongside MP Uri Maklev. The decision was attributed to a need for renewal but also reflected a struggle to tighten rabbinical control, particularly by Rabbi Dov Landau, over political representatives who had previously enjoyed significant independence.

Gafni has been replaced by MP Yaakov Asher, who is viewed as more loyal to the Lithuanian rabbinical leadership. Asher, a former mayor of Bnei Brak, aims to represent both scholars and working Haredim. While he maintains a firm stance on conscription, his background in local government and committee work suggests a focus on practical governance and cross-group alliances.

Meanwhile, the Sephardi Haredi party Shas faces an identity crisis after dropping to six seats from eleven. Leader Aryeh Deri resigned following the defeat, though he retained his party chairmanship. The party is now caught between Haredi voters who want to protect religious study and traditional voters who feel it has become too insular, particularly regarding its stance on military service.

The future of government formation remains uncertain, with both Gadi Eisenkot and Netanyahu courting Haredi support. The community is undergoing contradictory processes, with rabbinical leaders seeking tighter control while acknowledging the need to engage with broader societal issues. Younger Haredim, connected to the digital world and facing economic pressures, are less likely to accept traditional leadership decisions without question.

Although the established leadership still holds significant power, the recent elections and leadership reshuffles indicate that the old model of automatic loyalty is ending. The challenge for the new political figures will be to balance the traditional emphasis on religious study with the practical demands of an evolving Israeli society.