Abu Dhabi peace talks put European security arrangements in focus

US officials are seeking a lasting settlement to the Russia-Ukraine war through trilateral negotiations beginning in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, November 10. The meetings mark the first substantive talks between Russia and Ukraine since February and will also address Washington’s proposal for new security arrangements between Russia and Europe.

The negotiations come after joint US and Israeli strikes against Iran and midterm elections that weakened Donald Trump domestically. His administration has signalled a strong desire to reach an agreement, while European officials fear Washington could entertain Russian demands for Nato to reduce its military presence in eastern Europe, leaving allies more exposed to Moscow’s influence.

Delegations from Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and the European Union will meet American negotiators in Abu Dhabi to examine the proposed arrangements and ways to prevent future conflicts. A US administration official said European participation would be necessary for a settlement. Possible steps include restoring the Nato-Russian council, suspended following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, and easing sanctions against Russia.

American officials said they had also discussed possible guarantees for Ukraine’s security with Russia, describing them as comparable to Nato’s article 5 protections. Moscow has firmly opposed both Ukrainian membership of Nato and the deployment of western troops in Ukraine. An administration official said any US guarantee would require discussions between Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and could involve substantial resources, funding and military support.

Critics question the circumstances under which those guarantees would apply. They point out that article 5 does not compel Nato members to defend one another and that cyber-attacks and other hybrid operations complicate decisions about when a military response is required. The details of the proposed security arrangements remain unclear.

Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and a leading US negotiator, outlined the approach on Monday. He described plans for closer consultation, dependable communications during crises, increased military transparency and mutual steps to limit escalation, while preserving each country’s sovereignty and freedom to make decisions. A European security official from a country participating in the talks said the proposal remained vague and expressed concern that Washington could suggest significant concessions to Moscow.

Speaking at a G7 foreign ministers meeting on Monday, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas argued that existing European security agreements already imposed obligations on Russia concerning sovereignty and territorial integrity. “The problem is that Russia is not respecting these agreements,” she said.

Trump has indicated that a final settlement would likely require Ukraine to surrender territory. After meeting Kremlin adviser Kirill Dmitriev last week, he also suggested an agreement could encompass all of Europe. Critics fear that Trump and Vladimir Putin could negotiate concessions to Russia without adequately involving European leaders. Those concerns recall Moscow’s 2021 demands to halt Nato enlargement, withdraw troops to its pre-1997 boundaries and restrict missile deployments, proposals the alliance rejected.

US officials argue that the prolonged war demonstrates the need for different security arrangements. Secretary of state Marco Rubio said on Monday that discussions had made progress on what those arrangements might involve, while stressing that resolving the conflict remained necessary before they could take shape.