Ukraine cites battlefield gains as leverage for upcoming US-led peace talks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on Monday that recent military successes are strengthening Kyiv’s position ahead of new trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi. In a nightly video address, the president emphasized that every completed defensive operation and strategic objective serves to bolster Ukraine’s negotiating hand. He noted that top military commander Mykhailo Drapatyi had reported significant recent losses among Russian forces. Zelenskyy also highlighted the effectiveness of Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian targets, particularly sites within the oil industry.

New data suggests that Russian battlefield casualties have reached unprecedented levels in the country’s modern history. According to leaked information from the state statistics agency Rosstat, more than 400,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the conflict over nearly five years. The data, obtained by the Belarusian opposition-linked group Cyber Partisans and the Ukrainian collective Silent Crow, shows 412,576 death certificates explicitly linked to the war. These records were identified through official cause-of-death codes or written references to combat operations.

US negotiators participating in the talks in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday believe that both President Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin may be prepared to compromise on territorial issues. An American official told Reuters that each side might be willing to cede some ground. Under the proposed framework, Ukraine would receive an end to the war, security guarantees, and a roadmap for European Union accession. In a Sunday interview with 60 Minutes, Donald Trump suggested that Ukraine would have a different shape under the settlement, though he did not provide specific details. A senior Ukrainian official strongly denied that Kyiv would consider such concessions.

While President Trump described a strong inclination toward ending the conflict on Monday, noting that both sides are tired of fighting, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a more cautious outlook. Rubio stated that the peace process still has a long way to go, particularly in securing European participation. He told reporters that it has been difficult to get productive results from engaging Europe directly with Russia. European powers, including France, Germany, and the European Commission, will send officials to the talks, but Russia has indicated it does not want them to participate directly in the negotiations. Instead, Ukrainian delegates plan to hold separate meetings to brief their European allies on progress.

Rustem Umerov, the head of the Ukrainian delegation, said on Monday that Kyiv is working to ensure Europe remains a participant in the diplomatic process. At a G7 meeting in Paris, EU foreign ministers pressed Rubio to guarantee European representation. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul declared after talks with Rubio that Europe belongs at the table and that no solution is possible without it. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Trump’s team had prioritized collective security for the region, extending beyond just Russia and Ukraine, as a key agenda item.

On the battlefield, Russian forces targeted four electrical substations in the Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, and Vinnytsia regions on Monday, according to Russia’s defense ministry. These strikes are part of a broader campaign to deprive Ukrainian civilians of heating, electricity, and water as winter approaches. Zelenskyy announced that the EU had agreed to activate a special emergency mechanism to accelerate funding for power grid repairs. In a separate incident, Russian forces struck a warehouse in Odesa containing food supplies for local schools and kindergartens, killing three people according to local officials.

Ukrainian forces also continued their long-range offensive, launching a drone attack that started a fire at the KINEF oil refinery near St. Petersburg. Leningrad Governor Alexander Drozdenko confirmed the incident on Monday. Additionally, Ukraine’s general staff reported that forces struck a plant in the same region that produces solid rocket propellant for the Iskander-M ballistic missiles. These strikes aim to degrade Russia’s military and economic infrastructure while the diplomatic track advances.