Israel reviews Iran escalation plans as US pursues diplomatic agreement
Israeli military leaders are preparing for a possible major US offensive or surprise Iranian attack while Washington and Tehran continue negotiations.
By Larissa Bell ·
The Israeli military is preparing for two main scenarios involving an escalation with Iran as the United States continues efforts to negotiate an agreement with Tehran. The diplomacy, led by US Vice President JD Vance, is taking place alongside limited American military strikes, with Israeli defense officials maintaining a high state of alert.
The negotiations center on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and bringing back international nuclear inspections. In exchange, Washington would partially lift its blockade on Iran and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. The diplomatic effort aims to prevent the confrontation from developing into a broader regional conflict.
One scenario under review by the IDF is a large and particularly aggressive American offensive against Iranian infrastructure and military facilities, intended to shorten and end the conflict. The other is a surprise Iranian attack on US interests and bases throughout the Middle East. Israeli military bases accommodating American personnel and aircraft are among the potential targets covered by those preparations.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir and senior General Staff officers have conducted discussions and assessments in recent days to examine operational plans. Those deliberations led Israel Air Force Commander Maj.-Gen. Omer Tishler and Operations Directorate head Maj.-Gen. Itzik Cohen to miss the IDF Commanders' Championship. Planning also addresses the possibility that other Israeli adversaries, nearby or elsewhere in the region, could join an escalation through coordination, misunderstanding or miscalculation.
Israeli defense officials assess that US President Donald Trump would rather reach a diplomatic settlement than enter a military confrontation. Israeli security assessments nevertheless suggest that Iran's leadership interprets Washington's preference for negotiations as weakness. They also suggest Tehran regards the results of the November 3 US midterm elections as political payback against the White House. Israeli officials expect Iran to prolong negotiations while maintaining a hard-line position.
American forces have recently conducted limited attacks on Iranian military assets in southern Iran and near the Strait of Hormuz, including air defense systems and missile launchers on Qeshm Island. Other reported operations have struck military positions on Larak Island. Iranian forces have retaliated against American military assets and vessels, although the timing and full scope of all reported strikes remain independently unconfirmed.
Separately, Israeli defense officials addressed a November 1 security discussion about possible responses involving Iran. A preemptive Israeli offensive was among the options considered and was reportedly backed by the Mossad chief. Security officials said the proposal was quickly set aside.
The officials disputed accounts suggesting the meeting featured unusually heated exchanges. They described the discussion as professional and respectful, acknowledged differences on some matters and said disagreements had remained proportionate. They also characterized leaks about the meeting as politically motivated.
