Liberman's 2018 Draft Conscription Bill Targets 3,348 Recruits in Year One

Israel’s defense establishment currently faces a shortage of 12,000 personnel, a gap that has intensified the political debate over mandatory military service for the ultra-Orthodox community. This deficit exists against the backdrop of a prolonged conflict that has required extensive reservist deployment since the October 7, 2023 attack.

Avigdor Liberman, who announced on Sunday that he is willing to form a coalition with ultra-Orthodox parties, defended his 2018 legislative proposal as a viable basis for future negotiations. Although the bill failed to pass when it was originally introduced, Liberman stated it remains a worthy framework, provided it is updated to reflect the realities following the 2023 war.

Critics point to specific numerical and structural differences between Liberman’s 2018 draft and the 2025 legislation championed by the current government. Liberman’s proposal set a first-year recruitment target of 3,348 conscripts, with annual increases of 5 to 8 percent intended to reach 6,844 by 2027. In contrast, the 2025 bill projected 8,160 conscripts for its first year, rising to 8,500 by the fourth year.

The two bills also diverge on how they enforce compliance. The 2025 draft, written by Boaz Bismuth, imposes personal sanctions on individual draft evaders, including the loss of driving licenses, bans on foreign travel until age 23, and the denial of scholarships. Liberman’s earlier version relies on institutional penalties, cutting funding for Haredi schools if enlistment rates fall below 95 percent of the set target.

Bismuth criticized Liberman on Sunday for exposing himself as a negotiator willing to compromise on security issues to gain a government seat. Bismuth argued that Liberman’s legacy would be political instability rather than security improvement. The 2025 bill was previously denounced by Liberman’s party as an evasion law, leading to its failure in the legislature.

Liberman acknowledged that his 2018 bill would need adjustments after the October 7 attack, which shifted military priorities. He maintained that he still believes in a single enlistment law for all citizens and that past outlines must be examined in light of recent election results.

Political analysts remain skeptical that ultra-Orthodox parties will break their long-standing alliance with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to join a government led by a rival who campaigned on conscription. The core tension remains whether the proposed targets and timelines are sufficient to meet the military's current operational needs.