Lebanese Shi'ites Back State Control of Hezbollah Arsenal in New Poll
A September survey finds 66% of respondents want weapons transferred to the government, a sharp contrast to earlier data showing 87% opposed to disarmament.
By Hiroshi Ferrari ·
Lebanon's largest religious community is rethinking its reliance on Hezbollah's military power. A new survey indicates that a majority of Lebanese Shi'ites now prefer the state to hold the group's weapons rather than allowing the militia to maintain its own arsenal. This shift marks a departure from historical loyalty and suggests changing attitudes within the community that has long served as the group's political base.
Statistics Lebanon conducted the poll in September among 800 Lebanese Shi'ites. The results show that 66.4% support handing Hezbollah's weapons over to the Lebanese state. Conversely, 29.6% said the group should keep its arms. Hezbollah has traditionally argued that its arsenal is necessary to defend Lebanon against Israel. The data was reported in mid-October by Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org.
The survey also measured confidence in national institutions. Approximately 78.5% of respondents said they trust the Lebanese Armed Forces. A majority of 51.1% named the army as the best institution to guarantee long-term security. Only 16.5% selected Hezbollah for that role. Furthermore, 71.1% of participants said decisions regarding war and peace should rest solely with the Lebanese state, while just 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in the country's future.
Despite the push for state control, the group retains influence through social and economic networks. Roi Kais of KAN noted that these structures sustain Hezbollah's strength as long as no other entity fills the vacuum. However, 67.4% of respondents said the group failed to meet its goals or only partially achieved them in the war with Israel. Additionally, 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about the group's leadership and the conflict's consequences. Even so, 59.5% still expressed some trust in the organization, with 37.1% reporting a great deal of trust.
Earlier data presented a different picture. A May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, cited by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni in a June analysis for the Institute for National Security Studies, found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. Only 7.9% supported giving up its weapons in that earlier count. The discrepancy has raised questions about whether differences in survey wording or agenda shaped the outcomes.
Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that weakening the group requires a stronger Lebanese army and financial support from the West and the Gulf. They stated that the state must replace the services Hezbollah provides to effectively challenge its influence. Intimidation has also historically discouraged dissent within the community.
Signs of local wariness have emerged in recent months. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could be targeted in an Israeli strike. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere.
The group has suffered major military and leadership losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. A new war that began in March 2026 caused heavy destruction in villages in southern Lebanon. The next step involves whether the Lebanese state can offer security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity to convert discontent into political change.
