After 7,000 deaths, experts warn next US Iran war could be deadlier

The United States and Israel may resume their war with Iran as soon as the November 3 midterm elections conclude, according to analysts who warn a third round of fighting could prove more destructive than the previous two. Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli intelligence official who now works with the Institute for National Security Studies, described a renewed conflict as almost inevitable. He noted that President Donald Trump faces only bad or worse options in the Persian Gulf.

The two nations have already engaged in two separate wars over the last 18 months. The first conflict began in June 2025 with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and lasted 12 days before a fragile ceasefire took hold. Fighting returned in February following a large U.S. military buildup, with Israel targeting senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace added that Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate.

Citrinowicz expects the next phase to hit Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications lines running beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also raised the possibility that Iran could deploy part of its land army for limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, aiming to inflict maximum damage on the American economy. Since the summer truce collapsed, both sides have largely held off on fresh strikes against each other's bases, but the conflict has not gone quiet.

The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran continues to target commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of trying to inflate oil prices before the midterms, claiming the country was making up fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed, stating that vessel attacks are meant to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands.

Those demands include relief from sanctions, reparations for earlier strike damage, the release of billions in frozen assets, and the right to keep its enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that the war has pushed Iran's leadership to double down on its revolutionary ideology. She predicted retaliation would come from proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially targeting soft economic sites like airports.

The human toll is already heavy. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran, while Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in Iranian strikes on Gulf bases, along with more than 70 Israelis. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The New York Times and other outlets report that the Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown whether Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in a close race in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. The danger, he said, is that political calculation combines with an Iranian development that Netanyahu may inflate, producing an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. He said Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure paired with a clear, limited diplomatic exit, noting that asking them to change their identity would not succeed.