Erosion of Factory Base Complicates Lula's Path to Victory

Brazilian voters head to the polls on Sunday for a presidential run-off that pits incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. The contest is defined by a structural shift in the economy that has hollowed out the industrial workforce Lula built his political career upon. In Osasco, a former industrial hub now known as São Paulo’s Silicon Valley, manufacturing plants have given way to shopping malls and logistics centers for delivery apps. Despite backing Lula in 2022, the municipality switched its support to Bolsonaro in the first round this month. Bolsonaro secured the national first-round victory, maintaining the historical pattern where every first-round winner since 1989 has ultimately assumed the presidency.

The transformation of the labor market has altered the political calculus for both candidates. Gilberto Almazan, a metalworkers' union leader in Osasco, describes the disappearance of metal, chemical, and textile factories as a fundamental break with the past. He notes that five malls were constructed in their place, characterizing the current union movement as stuck in the Middle Ages. Almazan argues that the new class of drivers, food couriers, and small traders, a trend he terms Uber-isation, values flexibility over the collective welfare state Lula traditionally champions. Richard Lapper, a biographer of both major political families, observes that Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early, a dynamic that makes the economic disruption feel more acute to workers. He calls Lula a victim of his own success.

Economic indicators present a mixed picture for the incumbent. Unemployment has reached a record low, and Brazil was removed from the United Nations Hunger Map under Lula’s administration. However, Lapper points to a crisis of expectations where improved conditions are offset by high prices, household debt, and interest rates. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant who formerly supported Lula, cites government mismanagement and a heavy tax burden as reasons for his shift. Tairine, a hot dog seller who previously abstained, now plans to vote for Bolsonaro, stating that nothing has changed since Lula’s return. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, says Bolsonaro offers the hope of change.

Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed reducing government spending, ministries, and certain taxes while retaining some of Lula’s flagship welfare programs. He faces denied corruption accusations, which adds to the scrutiny on his candidacy. Voter engagement has been a concern, with 33 million Brazilians abstaining in the first round, the highest number since 1998. In the poorest communities, Lula’s welfare record remains a strong anchor. In the Maré favela in Rio, abstention rates exceeded the national average, yet Lula still won the local vote. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under 300 pounds monthly, supports Lula for his minimum wage increases and access to free medicines. She expresses doubt about Bolsonaro’s plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang as a terrorist organization, citing the police raids in Rio last year that resulted in more than 130 deaths. Andreza Dionísio, a resident of Maré, blames last-minute polling station changes and a sense of hopelessness for the low turnout.

Religious institutions are playing a growing role in the political gap left by traditional labor structures. Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, provide childcare, employment advice, and food. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, says Flávio Bolsonaro aligns with church values regarding family and abortion. Malafaia calls the probe against him politically motivated. The first-round results suggest a rejection of Lula rather than a full endorsement of his rival. Almazan fears that there will never be another Lula, placing the burden on the incumbent to convince voters he can offer a new narrative for a changing country.