Miliband to warn climate crisis threatens every country's national security

Ed Miliband will warn world leaders on Wednesday that climate change threatens the national security of every country, linking rising temperatures to food shortages, economic disruption, migration and conflict. Addressing the Cop31 UN climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, the UK foreign secretary will argue that security and defence have become central concerns in the response to global heating.

Speaking to the Guardian before his address, Miliband said destructive events previously associated with science fiction were becoming familiar features of news coverage. He identified risks to food supplies and infrastructure, alongside population movements, as consequences of climate breakdown. In an apparent criticism of the Conservatives and Reform UK, both of which want to scrap efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, he said opposition to climate action endangered national security.

Miliband arrived in Turkey on Tuesday evening for the leaders' gathering on Wednesday and Thursday, part of the two-week negotiations that began on Monday. UK prime minister Andy Burnham is expected to travel on Wednesday before holding bilateral meetings on Thursday. Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are scheduled to open the leaders' segment.

Other speakers include UN secretary general António Guterres, Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed. Brazil hosted last year's summit, while Ethiopia will host the next meeting. Chinese president Xi Jinping, Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Friedrich Merz are among the leaders staying away. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will attend.

In his speech, Miliband will say the world must confront the consequences of three decades of insufficient emissions reductions, warning of hardship and insecurity for billions. He will describe an overshoot of 1.5C above preindustrial temperatures as inevitable, with warming having exceeded that threshold for two years and unlikely to fall significantly. He will call for stronger policies to limit further heating and pursue a return to safer temperatures over subsequent decades.

Miliband will also argue that fossil fuel price shocks have become a persistent feature of global insecurity. He pointed to the surge in oil prices following the start of the Iran war this year, which has fuelled inflation and prompted central banks to raise interest rates. He said Russia and Iran had exposed countries' dependence on fossil fuels and their vulnerability to disruption at global chokepoints.

His proposed response combines deeper emissions cuts with greater resilience to extreme weather. He will seek increased clean energy investment, wider use of that energy in transport and heating, urgent reductions in methane emissions, and measures to protect and expand forests. Miliband also predicted renewed climate action by governments, movements and communities in 2027.

The appeal comes as campaigners criticise Burnham's government over policies they say threaten the UK's 2050 net zero target and weaken its international example. Ministers plan to soften requirements for carmakers to increase their share of electric vehicles by 2030. The government has also approved the Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea and is considering a licence for the Rosebank oilfield west of Shetland.