Gaza winter crisis deepens as peace plan stalls amid political uncertainty
Winter flooding and stalled diplomatic progress have left Gaza's two million residents in precarious conditions as Hamas retains control over a significant portion of the territory.
By Hassan Ellis ·
More than three years after the events of October 7, the situation in Gaza remains precarious. Hamas continues to exercise control over the enclave's two million residents, a dynamic that has persisted since the start of the conflict. Currently, the militant group governs approximately 30 percent of the territory, an area where the majority of the civilian population has been concentrated due to ongoing military and humanitarian pressures.
The winter season has brought severe flooding to the region, exacerbating the difficulties faced by those living in temporary shelters. The Board of Peace, an entity established under the US-backed ceasefire framework of October 2025, issued a statement on Monday highlighting the harsh conditions. The body noted that tens of thousands of people are trapped in tents, exposed to cold and unsafe environments that have left them in a state of precarious existence.
While the Board of Peace asserts that it has facilitated the entry of humanitarian aid, it warned that current efforts are insufficient. The group urged the Israeli government to authorize the entry of essential materials for temporary shelter and called on Hamas to lay down its arms. In its communication, the board stated that the time for assurances without implementation has passed, arguing that the civilians can no longer afford continued inaction.
The implementation of the peace plan, which originally envisioned an international force and a technocratic committee to manage the enclave, has been delayed by several factors. Progress was initially slowed by the onset of the Iran war in February 2026 and subsequently by Israel's domestic elections. Although the US secured UN backing for the plan in January 2026 and established a Civil-Military Coordination Center in Kiryat Gat, the anticipated deployment of the International Stabilization Force in the spring of 2026 has not yet materialized.
Political considerations in Israel have further complicated the process. The governing coalition, wary of appearing soft on Hamas ahead of and during elections, has hesitated to push for significant changes. This approach contrasts with the early post-war rhetoric, which suggested a more decisive dismantling of Hamas's governance. Instead, the strategy shifted to degrading the group's capabilities while allowing it to remain, a tactic similar to the pre-war concept of mowing the grass.
Military operations have resulted in significant attrition of Hamas leadership, with most mid-level and high-level commanders killed by the fall of 2024. Despite these losses, the group has continued to recruit and maintain its presence. The Israel Defense Forces have repeatedly reconquered areas such as Zeitoun and Jabalya, often razing homes in the process. This cycle of conflict has forced civilians to move multiple times, eventually concentrating them in the central refugee camps and western Gaza.
Since the ceasefire began in October 2025, the IDF has expanded its control to cover roughly 70 percent of Gaza, while Hamas retains the remaining areas. The transition has been slow, with Washington potentially waiting to see the results of Israeli elections before committing to further steps. Meanwhile, the concept of using militias to manage parts of Gaza has proven largely ineffective, as these groups have often acted in ways that do not support stable civilian life.
The current impasse leaves the civilian population in a state of limbo. There is no clear initiative to create a zone where residents can live free from Hamas rule. Disarming the estimated 10,000 Hamas fighters hiding among the two million civilians remains a daunting task for the IDF, which prefers not to conduct a large-scale ground operation in the remaining areas. Without a viable path for civilians to leave the Hamas-controlled zone, the group maintains its grip on the population.
Observers note that the Board of Peace needs to give its activities more substance to break the cycle of stagnation. This may involve deploying the International Stabilization Force and initiating reconstruction projects to demonstrate a tangible future for the enclave. Until such commitments are made by various nations and Israeli political leaders, the people of Gaza remain stuck in a difficult winter with little prospect of immediate change.
