Conservative bloc leads in polls ahead of Spain's early general election

Spain is approaching a pivotal general election on November 29, with the latest polling data suggesting that the conservative camp holds a decisive advantage over the ruling coalition. Although the Socialists have managed to narrow the distance slightly in recent weeks, they continue to trail the People's Party. Political analysts note that the conservative bloc would likely need to form a coalition with the far-right Vox party to secure a majority of seats in the 350-member lower house of parliament.

The electoral campaign, which officially kicks off in four days, is expected to center on several pressing national issues. Key topics include the ongoing housing crisis, immigration policies, and recent corruption scandals. Additionally, the public discourse is heavily influenced by the aftermath of a deadly train crash last month. That tragedy led to the resignation of Transport Minister Oscar Puente and has cast a shadow over the current government's performance.

A recent poll conducted by SocioMetrica and published by El Español newspaper projects that the People's Party and Vox could combine for approximately 200 seats in parliament. In contrast, the Socialists are projected to secure 108 seats, which represents a modest increase of two seats compared to previous surveys. The study, based on 5,460 online interviews, carries a margin of error of three percentage points and indicates a net transfer of 832,000 voters shifting their support from left-wing to right-wing parties.

Another survey by the polling institute 40dB, released in El Pais, shows a similar trend. This data suggests the gap between the People's Party and the Socialists has narrowed to just two percentage points. Despite this closeness, the combined right-wing bloc is still projected to achieve a working majority of around 190 seats, ensuring control of the legislative agenda.

The Sigma Dos poll, published by El Mundo, offers a slightly different perspective on the Socialist recovery. It indicates that the party has regained some ground lost following the train accident and is now likely to win 105 seats. However, this figure remains significantly lower than the combined 199 seats projected for the People's Party and Vox, highlighting the challenge facing the prime minister's camp.

An IMOP poll for El Confidencial focused specifically on vote transfers rather than final seat counts. The findings pointed to a decline in voter loyalty among Socialist supporters, while loyalty to the People's Party increased. Notably, the gains for the People's Party appeared to come largely at the expense of Vox supporters, suggesting a reshuffling within the right-wing electorate.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who has held office since 2018, called for this snap election on October 5. The decision followed a vote in which right-wing parties rejected emergency legislation designed to address the nation's severe housing shortage. This legislative deadlock forced Sanchez to seek a new mandate from the Spanish public.

A significant challenge for the embattled prime minister is the fragility of his coalition partners on the hard left. These groups were unable to agree on a unified list of candidates last month, a setback that has further reduced the prospects for the left-wing coalition to maintain power. The polls show the Broad Front, a coalition of hard-left parties, is poised to win between 10 and 15 seats.

Meanwhile, its rival on the hard left, Podemos, faces the risk of losing its parliamentary representation entirely. This potential loss would mark a significant shift in the political landscape, further isolating the Socialists in a crowded and competitive field. As the campaign intensifies, the focus will remain on whether the left can halt the rightward shift in voter sentiment before the November 29 deadline.